18 2.7 FUTURE POPULATION

When we looked at the population pyramids we considered both the current population conditions and the projected population pyramids. When we looked at the first graph in the chapter, it didn’t stop at the current year. It provided three different estimates of the near future. Estimating future populations is important, both at the global level and the national level, but also at the local level as well. Societies large and small attempt to plan their futures in terms of resource allocation and economic development. Population projections are difficult. They attempt to take current circumstances and use them to plot the likeliest future.

The problem is that the future may not be like the present. A disease that is suppressing fertility may be cured. The climate may change more than expected. We could experience another world war. Any number of unexpected large scale events could occur that completely invalidate the reasoning behind a projection. Nicholas Talib calls these Black Swan events. They are things that you don’t know about until you do know about them. Irrespective projections will be made because they are necessary.